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Which will it be? Red or Blue? eLab's New Prediction Market


Which will it be? Red or Blue?

UCR’s eLab eXchange has launched a predictions market on which political Web sites will flourish or languish the last two weeks of the presidential election.

(October 20, 2008)


RIVERSIDE, Calif. (www.ucr.edu) – As the presidential election looms closer, average Americans and political junkies alike are looking to the Web for the most up-to-date information on the closely watched race. In response, UCR’s eLab eXchange has launched a new predictions market – Red or Blue? You be the Judge! – to measure which Web sites will see the most increases or decreases prior to Nov. 4.

From now until Friday, Oct. 31, 2008, participants in the predictions market can vote on eight different sites. The sites representing popular Republican or Democratic leanings being tabulated are: Barack.Obama.com, JohnMcCain.com, DailyKos.com, Huffingtonpost.com, HumanEvents.com, Moveon.org, NationalReview.org and TownHall.com. Participants can create an account free of charge and can win prizes depending upon the outcome of their predications.

“Recent polls show Obama in the lead, but some observers are wondering about the so-called ‘Bradley effect,’ not to mention a last-minute shake-up by the McCain campaign,” said Professor Donna Hoffman, chancellor's chair and co-director of the Sloan Center for Internet Retailing and co-founder of the eLab eXchange at UCR’s A. Gary Anderson Graduate School of Management. “We wondered if the traffic on certain political Web sites might serve as an early indicator of which candidate will win.”

Researchers at eLab eXchange believe that many people are turning to the Web as a key source for information and will visit sites that cater to their particular leanings. The outcome of these eight markets will be determined shortly after the presidential election using Nielsen Online's NetView audience measurement service.

Among other forecasting results, eXchange members have successfully predicted the most popular holiday online shopping day and have voted on which Web sites would do the best during poor economic times.

The University of California, Riverside (www.ucr.edu) is a doctoral research university, a living laboratory for groundbreaking exploration of issues critical to Inland Southern California, the state and communities around the world. Reflecting California's diverse culture, UCR's enrollment has exceeded 21,000 students. The campus opened a medical school in 2013 and has reached the heart of the Coachella Valley by way of the UCR Palm Desert Center. The campus has an annual statewide economic impact of more than $1 billion.

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