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U.S. Economy -- Continued Boom or Bust?

Will U.S. Economic Growth Continue?

UCR's Marcelle Chauvet looks at prospects for the U.S. economy.

(April 24, 2006)

RIVERSIDE, Calif. ( -- Where is the U.S. economy headed? Currently, it’s showing steady expansion but will that growth continue?

Those questions and others will be addressed by Marcelle Chauvet, associate professor of economics at UC Riverside, at this month’s presentation of the A. Gary Anderson Graduate School of Management’s Business Speaker Series on Thursday, April 27 at 7:30 a.m.

Started in January of this year, the series features informal presentations by academics and business leaders to meet the needs of the Inland Empire business community. Future presentations will be held on the last Thursday of the month through the end of 2006.

This Thursday, Chauvet will discuss the probabilities of current and future economic strength or weakness based on a dynamic factor with the Markov switching model. The model produces a monthly indicator of U.S. and regional business cycles and probabilities of recessions and expansions.

The data generated by the model can be used to monitor the beginning and end of business cycle phases and to evaluate forecasts of the economy in real time. The model is also used to obtain an indicator of the state of the real estate cycle.

Chauvet’s research focuses on macroeconomics and econometrics, and she is particularly interested in measuring and forecasting business cycles, modeling risk premia on stocks and bonds and their interactions with the real economy, and understanding the dynamics of long-run growth and development. She has contributed articles to numerous scholarly journals.

Chauvet joined the UCR faculty in 1995. Prior to that she worked at the Ministry of Industry in Brazil, where she served as a research economist and policy advisor. She has also taught at the University of Brasilia. From 2002 to 2004 she worked as a senior economist and associate policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. She serves as a consultant for the Central Bank of Brazil on a regular basis.

Chauvet received her M.A. in Economic Policy from the University of Brasilia and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania.

The Business Speakers Series held at UCR’s California Museum of Photography, 3824 Main St., Riverside, CA 92401 (on the pedestrian mall, near University Avenue). For more information contact Lisa Ludwig at (951) 827-2519 or


The University of California, Riverside ( is a doctoral research university, a living laboratory for groundbreaking exploration of issues critical to Inland Southern California, the state and communities around the world. Reflecting California's diverse culture, UCR's enrollment has exceeded 21,000 students. The campus opened a medical school in 2013 and has reached the heart of the Coachella Valley by way of the UCR Palm Desert Center. The campus has an annual statewide economic impact of more than $1 billion.

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